November 2025 | Monthly market recap
U.S. stock market notched another month of gains—but barely
Stocks were up again in November, but performance differentials between different segments of the market suggest that the plot may be thickening when it comes to the generally unbridled enthusiasm investors have shown for the artificial intelligence (AI) trade this year. Value stocks handily outperformed growth stocks (which took a loss) in November, and Information Technology was the worst-performing sector of the market, finishing with a decline of more than 4%. Some evidence suggests that the selloff among what had been the market leaders in months past may have entailed some profit-taking as investors rejiggered their portfolios for the end of the year. But nonetheless, it seems likely that stock valuations could come under more scrutiny in 2026 than has typically been the case this year.
ONE-MONTH PERFORMANCE as of 11/30/25 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. large caps (S&P 500) | U.S. small caps (Russell 2000) | International developed (MSCI EAFE) | Emerging markets (MSCI EM) | Investment-grade bonds (Bloomberg Agg) |
0.25% | 0.96% | 0.64% | -2.39% | 0.62% |
Source: Boston Partners; all data via individual index providers. Past performance does not guarantee future results. See below for definitions.
Tech loses its dominant position after choppy month of trading
After a five-month streak of touching new highs, the S&P 500 Index failed to top the high water mark set in October during the month. On a sector level, Information Technology—thanks to November’s decline—no longer leads the pack for year-to-date performance; that honor belongs to the still-tech-heavy Communication Services sector. Notably, all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 are in positive territory for the year so far, including Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples, which have generally been hardest hit by the Trump administration’s tariff policies.
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | Fed funds rate | 10-year UST | Inflation (CPI) | Jobs | |
Most recent | 3.8% | Unchanged | 4.02% | 3.0% | 119,000 |
Prior reading | –0.6% | 3.75%–4.00% | 4.11% | 2.9% | –4,000 |
Sources: Gross domestic product (GDP) via the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Federal funds rate via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 10-year U.S. Treasury (UST) rates via the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Inflation (CPI) and jobs (non-farm payroll figures) via the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All “most recent” data is for the month of November and is compared with the month prior, except GDP, CPI, and jobs figures, which reflect September data—the most recent available due to the federal government shutdown. Note that GDP data is compared with the prior quarter.
International stock posted muted gains, as emerging markets slipped
Developed-market international stocks recorded another month of gains in November, albeit a modest one, while emerging markets trended lower. China was an area of some concern during the month, as investors grappled with the country’s weakening currency and ballooning government debts. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly in November, which served as a mild tailwind for domestic investors in international foreign-denominated securities.
Federal Reserve may be done easing after December rate cut
The futures markets currently anticipate a roughly 23% chance of another 25 basis point reduction during the Fed’s January meeting, although a deteriorating economy would change that calculus. If the Fed holds rates steady in January, it will mean that the federal funds rate would be 75 basis points lower than when the Fed resumed easing in September 2025. What will happen if inflation begins to creep higher under these looser monetary conditions is anybody’s guess.
Bond markets posted modest gains in anticipation of another rate cut
Intermediate-term, investment-grade bonds were up slightly in November, as investors anticipated another 25 basis-point rate reduction from the Federal Reserve. Ultimately, longer-term bonds were generally more range bound during the month, while shorter-term bonds saw yields trend lower, resulting in a somewhat steeper yield curve.
Upcoming key events
- December 11: Broadcom reports earnings
- December 18: Jobs data for November released
- December 17: Micron Technology reports earnings
- December 18: CPI data for November released
Chart of the month
Whatever concerns investors may have about valuations notwithstanding, corporate earnings have been impressively solid of late. The historical pattern over the past 25+ years has been for companies to tend to manage Wall Street earnings expectations down—successfully—as lower expectations are easier to beat. This has tended to be true whether looking at the current fiscal year or at the next—but not lately. In recent months, earnings estimates for both the dwindling remainder of 2025 (the dark blue line) and for 2026 (the green line) have been trending higher. So it’s not just investors who have been optimistic these days—Wall Street analysts are also seeing meaningfully better bottom lines for companies as we head into the new year.
Earnings expectations on the rise: recent revisions to current and next year’s EPS estimates vs. the historical trend
Source: Evercore/ISI Research, as of December 2025. Past performance does not guarantee future results. “Prior year” reflects the consensus earnings estimate for the S&P 500 companies during the calendar year prior to a given fiscal year—for example, the evolving estimates for fiscal 2025 during calendar year 2024. “Current year” represents the estimates for the ongoing fiscal/calendar year. “Next year” represents estimates for the following fiscal year. You cannot invest directly in an index. See last page for index definitions.
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Important information
Boston Partners Global Investors, Inc. (Boston Partners) is composed of three divisions, Boston Partners, Boston Partners Private Wealth, and Weiss, Peck & Greer (WPG) Partners, and is an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of ORIX Corporation of Japan (ORIX).
The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted. Actual results may vary. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index tracks the performance of intermediate-term investment-grade bonds traded in the United States. A basis point refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1%, or 0.01%. The Consumer Price Index is a commonly used measure of inflation that tracks the variation in prices paid by typical consumers for retail goods and other items. The MSCI EAFE Index tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap equities traded across global developed markets, excluding the United States and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap equities traded in global emerging markets. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies traded in the United States. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of the 500 largest companies traded in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The breakpoints for capitalization ranges should be viewed only as guideposts and will change over time. In general, FTSE Russell (which maintains a number of stock-market indexes based on company size) considers small-cap stocks to have market caps of between $150 million and $7 billion, mid caps to have market caps between $7 billion and $150 billion, and large caps to be those companies with market caps above $150 billion.
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