March 2026 | Monthly market recap
U.S. stock market tumbled, oil prices jumped as Iran conflict spooked investors
March was a turbulent month for U.S. equities, driven largely by U.S. and Israeli military operations in Iran and the accompanying shock to energy prices. The broad market sold off, nearing correction territory at one point, and returns for March would have been notably worse if not for a strong rebound on the final trading day of the month. Defensive and value-oriented generally segments held up better than cyclical and growth-focused names, although losses were widespread: The only sector to post a gain for the month was Energy, as the price of Brent crude leapt from around $72 dollars per barrel to over $100 per barrel by mid March.
ONE-MONTH PERFORMANCE as of 3/31/2026 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. large caps (S&P 500) | U.S. small caps (Russell 2000) | International developed (MSCI EAFE) | Emerging markets (MSCI EM) | Investment-grade bonds (Bloomberg Agg) |
-4.98% | -5.00% | -10.19% | -13.06% | -1.76% |
Source: Boston Partners; all data via individual index providers. Past performance does not guarantee future results. See below for definitions.
Value stocks continued to outperform across the board
Although it was a down month for stocks of all stripes, value stocks did continue their streak of outperformance across all three major capitalization ranges—large, mid, and small. The discrepancy was most pronounced among smaller names, where value outperformed by over 200 basis points. This marks the fifth month in a row that value has topped growth.
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP (Q4 vs. Q3) | Fed funds rate | 10-year UST | Inflation (CPI) | Jobs | |
Most recent | 0.7% | Unchanged | 4.30% | 2.4% | –92,000 |
Prior reading | 4.4% | 3.75%–4.00% | 3.97% | 2.4% | 126,000 |
Sources: Gross domestic product (GDP) via the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Federal funds rate via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 10-year U.S. Treasury (UST) rates via the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Inflation (CPI) and jobs (non-farm payroll figures) via the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All “most recent” data is for the month of March and is compared with the month prior, except CPI and jobs figures, which reflect February data—the most recent available. Note that GDP data is compared with the prior quarter.
International stocks hit hard by rapidly rising oil prices
International markets suffered losses in March, driven lower by the same concerns that rattled U.S. equities. In Europe, stagflation concerns remained center stage as inflation and growth jitters collided, constraining the ECB and Bank of England from easing. Asia was broadly weaker, with markets differentiating between energy importers and exporters—Japan, a heavy oil importer, recorded its worst monthly performance since 2008. The U.S. dollar rallied during the month, which served as an additional headwind for domestic investors in foreign currency-denominated securities.
Federal Reserve is likely stuck in a holding pattern
The Federal Reserve’s job just got even harder. While a soft labor market (not to mention relentless pressure from President Trump) might suggest a benefit to somewhat lower short-term rates, the massive jump in oil and gas prices has reintroduced inflationary pressures into an economy that was already grappling with stubbornly persistent price pressure, which makes the case for higher policy interest rates. The consensus is that the Fed is unlikely to do anything in their April meeting, but not necessarily by choice: The Board now appears stuck between the proverbial rock and a hard place. In fact, current futures market odds now suggest that the status quo is the most likely outcome for interest rates until well into 2027.
Bond markets also posted losses as longer-term rates rose
The bond market was no less turbulent in March, largely driven by dual pressures on inflation and growth. The 10-year Treasury yield rose meaningfully over the month, reaching its highest levels since July 2025, as surging oil prices stoked inflation fears and complicated the Fed’s path forward. Treasury auctions were notably weak, with demand coming in among the lowest levels of the year and the Treasury forced to pay above-market rates to generate even that muted interest. Rate-cut expectations were pushed out significantly, with markets at various points pricing in the possibility of hikes rather than cuts. Investment-grade and high-yield credit faced headwinds alongside Treasuries, as risk sentiment deteriorated broadly.
Upcoming key events
- April 10: CPI data for March released
- April 21–30: Tesla, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple report earnings
- April 28–29: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting
Chart of the month
Oil prices were more than 50% by the end of March, and the tough news for consumers and businesses is that prices aren’t expected to normalize anytime soon. Recent futures market data doesn’t anticipate oil returning to $80 per barrel until early 2027, after which prices are expected to remain somewhat elevated for another five years. The takeaway is that supply shocks can move prices quickly and dramatically—and shows just how much is riding on reopening the key shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz.
Source: Bloomberg, as of March 31, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You cannot invest directly in an index. See below for additional definitions.
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Important information
Boston Partners Global Investors, Inc. (Boston Partners) is composed of three divisions, Boston Partners, Boston Partners Private Wealth, and Weiss, Peck & Greer (WPG) Partners, and is an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of ORIX Corporation of Japan (ORIX). Boston Partners is affiliated with listed corporations through common ownership. ORIX Corporation Europe, N.V. services may be offered in the U.S. through Robeco Institutional Asset Management, U.S.
The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted. Actual results may vary. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index tracks the performance of intermediate-term investment-grade bonds traded in the United States. The Consumer Price Index is a commonly used measure of inflation that tracks the variation in prices paid by typical consumers for retail goods and other items. The MSCI EAFE Index tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap equities traded across global developed markets, excluding the United States and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap equities traded in global emerging markets. The NASDAQ 100 tracks the performance of the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The Russell 1000 Growth and Value Indexes track the performance of those large-cap U.S. equities in the Russell 1000 Index with growth and value style characteristics, respectively. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies traded in the United States. The S&P 100 and 500 Indexes track the performance of the 100 and 500 largest companies traded in the United States, respectively. S&P 500 Equal Weight Index also tracks the performance of the 500 largest companies traded in the United States, but weights each company equally, rather than proportionally according to market cap. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The ECB (European Central Bank) is the central institution responsible for monetary policy, maintaining price stability, and managing the euro currency within the Eurozone.
The breakpoints for capitalization ranges should be viewed only as guideposts and will change over time. In general, FTSE Russell (which maintains a number of stock-market indexes based on company size) considers small-cap stocks to have market caps of between $150 million and $7 billion, mid caps to have market caps between $7 billion and $150 billion, and large caps to be those companies with market caps above $150 billion.
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